Sharon Bialek, the fourth woman to allege that Herman Cain sexually harassed her--and the first to do so live on television--spoke to the news media on Monday. Bialek's press conference appears to have cut Herman Cain's chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination almost in half.
Just before it was announced that a woman and her attorney, Gloria Allred, would be holding a press conference Monday, the prediction markets gave Cain a 6.8 percent chance of becoming the Republican Party's presidential nominee. By the time the press conference ended, Cain's chances in the prediction markets had dropped to 3.8 percent.
I do not know how long it will take for public opinion polls to reflect Cain's weakened position in the presidential race, but the prediction markets have spoken: There is more than a 96 percent likelihood that Cain will fall in the public-opinion polls before Repub
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