Iraq's Shocking Human Toll: About 1 Million Killed, 4.5 Million Displaced, 1-2 Million Widows, 5 Million Orphans
By John Tirman
February 02, 2009 "The Nation" -- We are now able to estimate the number of Iraqis who have died in the war instigated by the Bush administration. Looking at the empirical evidence of Bush's war legacy will put his claims of victory in perspective. Of course, even by his standards -- "stability" -- the jury is out. Most independent analysts would say it's too soon to judge the po
More..litical outcome. Nearly six years after the invasion, the country remains riven by sectarian politics and major unresolved issues, like the status of Kirkuk.
We have a better grasp of the human costs of the war. For example, the United Nations estimates that there are about 4.5 million displaced Iraqis -- more than half of them refugees -- or about one in every six citizens. Only 5 percent have chosen to return to their homes over the past year, a period of reduced violence from the high levels of 2005-07. The availability of healthcare, clean water, functioning schools, jobs and so forth remains elusive. According to Unicef, many provinces report that less than 40 percent of households have access to clean water. More than 40 percent of children in Basra, and more than 70 percent in Baghdad, cannot attend school.
The mortality caused by the war is also high. Several household surveys were conducted between 2004 and 2007. While there are differences among them, the range suggests a congruence of estimates. But none have been conducted for eighteen months, and the two most reliable surveys were completed in mid-2006. The higher of those found 650,000 "excess deaths" (mortality attributable to war); the other yielded 400,000. The war remained ferocious for twelve to fifteen months after those surveys were finished and then began to subside. Iraq Body Count, a London NGO that uses English-language press reports from Iraq to count civilian deaths, provides a means to update the 2006 estimates. While it is known to be an undercount, because press reports are incomplete and Baghdad-centric, IBC nonetheless provides useful trends, which are striking. Its estimates are nearing 100,000, more than double its June 2006 figure of 45,000. (It does not count nonviolent excess deaths -- from health emergencies, for example -- or insurgent deaths.) If this is an acceptable marker, a plausible estimate of total deaths can be calculated by doubling the totals of the 2006 household surveys, which used a much more reliable and sophisticated method for estimates that draws on long experience in epidemiology. So we have, at present, between 800,000 and 1.3 million "excess deaths" as we approach the six-year anniversary of this war.
This gruesome figure makes sense when reading of claims by Iraqi officials that there are 1-2 million war widows and 5 million orphans. This constitutes direct empirical evidence of total excess mortality and indirect, though confirming, evidence of the displaced and the bereaved and of general insecurity. The overall figures are stunning: 4.5 million displaced, 1-2 million widows, 5 million orphans, about 1 million dead -- in one way or another, affecting nearly one in two Iraqis.
By any sensible measure, it would be difficult to describe this as a victory of any kind. It speaks volumes about the repair work we must do for Iraqis, and it should caution us against the savage wars we are prone to. Now that Bush is gone, perhaps the United States can honestly face the damage we have wrought and the responsibilities we must accept from it.
John Tirman is Executive Director of MIT's Center for International Studies. Less..
Added: Feb 2 2009 In: middle_east
By: ReadyRock2008
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- dead babies,
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Comments - sort by newest to oldest
war crimes
Posted Feb-2-2009 by "PEDRO2705" (R)
Just cleaning out the 'gene pool' - it's been stagnate a while. You can thank us later.
Posted Feb-2-2009 by "SF_Talon" (R)
Yes, we can say we done good in Iraq, because OUR aims were achieved. Who gives a toss about what effect it had on the Iraqi people right?
Posted Feb-2-2009 by "QXT" (R)
Sending grunts to get blown up in Iraq is an odd way of cleaning the gene pool, but hey, whatever works!
Posted Feb-2-2009 by "QXT" (R)
Yep that sounds like FACTS to me
Kind of like the FACT that there were no WMD's. Nice estimation on your part America.
Posted Feb-2-2009 by "jpaw" (R)
google "WMD"
Posted Feb-2-2009 by "StormUSA" (R)
The irony of it all, is that a lot of those that died would probably still be alive today living in relative peace under Saddam.
There is no honor in this war on either side, it is simply a tragedy that should have never happened.
Posted Feb-2-2009 by "ConservativeDrones" (R)
You won't mind one day when all those countries that you have oppressed return the favour. Will you be one of those who will be saying "why they attack us, what did we do", like in the case of 9/11, but theirs good evidence that was an inside job.
Posted Feb-2-2009 by "mammon" (R)
This is BS. Not even the looney libs have the number anywhere close to this.
And i'm no math-lete by any stretch but how can there be 2 million widows if only 1 million were killed????
Posted Feb-2-2009 by "RustyNailer" (R)
Filtering the numbers by cause of death would tell an entirely different story. The article tries to tell us that everyone who died in Iraq since 2003 was caused by U.S. forces. Or so it seems to imply.
Now try filtering it by natural causes, disease, accidents such as motor vehicles, criminal murder arising from crime, and ESPECIALLY sectarian violence.
Also, including the reasons that some folks don't have clean water (and most likely never have) as well as why children in some provinces cannot go to school would be illuminating. I know from my experinces there that the children I met who did not attend school failed to because thier families required them to work instead.
Posted Feb-2-2009 by "jsczerby" (R)
jesus and bush... killin' some of them AYrabs.
i still can't believe the cunt did it. our "pro-life" president...
Posted Feb-2-2009 by "pedsed" (R)
On the contrary, Iraq was the only country to keep Iran in check, and U.S blew it as they turn everything they touch into shit.
Sounds about right, but you say nothing about the fact that most of the dead were part of Saddam's armed forces or insurgents. And by the way, those US troops killed in Iraq only slightly out number those killed during the Clinton years. Look it up for yourself.
Posted Feb-2-2009 by "1949bboy" (R)
These numbers are way off. Are the Iraqi's Mormons? According to my institute the Iraqi's have suffered 1 casualty and have 2 widows. Now that you read it, it's true! Yay!
Posted Feb-2-2009 by "DeathtoIslam" (R)
so how many Iraqis died in their war against Iran? During the same war, how many widows and orphans were there?
How many Kurds did Sadam murder with chemical poison? And how many widows and orphans were there? (Probably none, as he killed everyone).
How many Iraqis were tortured and murdered during the reign or Saddam, Usay and Nutsy?
Since you are such an excellent researcher, the answer to my questions should be a piece of cake.
Posted Feb-2-2009 by "flywithbirds" (R)
Hey! Where's the media now that Iraq is working? Remember the daily "we lost" groupies? Guess what we won dicks! My buddy just got back and said there is almost no violence over there now. Except Mosul he said it's still a shit hole. Every country needs it's Oakland, right?
Posted Feb-2-2009 by "DeathtoIslam" (R)