US department of energy says greenhouse emissions rose six per cent in 2010, far more than recent worst case scenario.The global output of heat-trapping carbon dioxide jumped by the
biggest amount on record, the US department of energy has calculated, in
a sign of how weak the world's efforts have been at slowing man-made
The new figures for 2010 mean that levels of
greenhouse gases are higher than the worst case scenario outlined by
climate experts just four years ago.
"The more we talk about the
need to control emissions, the more they are growing," John Reilly,
co-director of MIT's Joint Programme on the Science and Policy of Global
The world pumped about 564 million more tonnes of carbon into the air in 2010 than it did in 2009, an increase of six per cent.
That amount of extra pollution eclipses the individual emissions of
all but three countries - China, the US and India, the world's top
producers of greenhouse gases.
It is a "monster" increase that is
unheard of, said Gregg Marland, a professor of geology at Appalachian
State University, who has helped calculate Department of Energy figures
in the past.
Extra pollution in China and the US account for more than half the increase in emissions last year, Marland said.
"It's a big jump," said Tom Boden,
director of the Energy Department's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis
Centre at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee.
"From an emissions standpoint, the global financial crisis seems to be over."
Boden said that in 2010 people were traveling, and manufacturing was back up
worldwide, spurring the use of fossil fuels, the chief contributor of
man-made climate change.
India and China are huge users of coal.
Burning coal is the biggest carbon source worldwide and emissions from
that jumped nearly eight per cent in 2010.
"The good news is that these economies are growing rapidly so everyone ought to be for that, right?" Reilly said Thursday.
"Broader economic improvements in poor countries has been bringing
living improvements to people. Doing it with increasing reliance on coal
is imperiling the world."
In 2007, when the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued its last large report on global
warming, it used different scenarios for carbon dioxide pollution, and
said the rate of warming would be based on the rate of pollution.
Boden said the latest figures put global emissions higher than the worst case projections from the climate panel.
forecast global temperatures rising between 2.4 and 6.4 degrees Celsius
by the end of the century with the best estimate at four degrees
Even though global warming
skeptics have attacked the climate change panel as being too alarmist,
scientists have generally found their predictions too conservative,
He said his university worked on emissions scenarios, their likelihood, and what would happen.
The IPCC's worst case scenario was only about in the middle of what MIT calculated are likely scenarios.
Chris Field of Stanford University, head of one of the IPCC's working groups,
said the panel's emissions scenarios are intended to be more accurate
in the long term and are less so in earlier years.
He said the question now among scientists is whether the future is the panel's worst case scenario "or something more extreme".
"Really dismaying," Granger Morgan, head of the engineering and public policy
department at Carnegie Mellon University, said of the new figures.
"We are building up a horrible legacy for our children and grandchildren."
But Reilly and University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver found something good in recent emissions figures.The developed countries that ratified the 1997 Kyoto Protocol greenhouse
gas limiting treaty have reduced their emissions overall since then and
have achieved their goals of cutting emissions to about eight per cent
below 1990 levels. The US did not ratify the agreement.
In 1990, developed countries produced about 60 per cent of the world's greenhouse
gases, now it is probably less than 50 per cent, Reilly said.
"We really need to get the developing world because if we don't, the problem is going to be running away from us," Weaver said.
"And the problem is pretty close from running away from us."http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2011/11/201111402622633852.html
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