Senior Shin Bet official: Hamas completely lost Gaza war
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent
A senior official in the Shin Bet security service argues that Hamas failed militarily during Operation Cast Lead and did not achieve any of its aims. According to the official, the group's battle doctrine was proved hollow and failed to cause any real damage to Israel.
This is the first assessment of its type published by a senior Shin Bet official s
More..ince the end of the Gaza offensive nine months ago. The report was published on the Web site of a major research institute based in the United States.
Yoram Cohen, who co-authored the report with Jeffrey White, was until six months ago the Shin Bet's deputy director. In the past year, Cohen has been in the United States for study and research.
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According to the two authors, the period of relative quiet that has followed the Israeli operation in the Gaza Strip does not "signal the end of Hamas' struggle." They predict that "more violence can be expected in the future, at varying levels of intensity."
Cohen and White add that "the movement's willingness and ability to use violence for political purposes is a critical component of the Israeli-Palestinian equation."
Cohen and White describe the fighting in January as the first real test of Hamas in terms of its military capabilities, which had been built up gradually since the Israeli pullout from the Strip in the summer of 2005. At the start of the recent confrontation, the group had around 15,000 armed militants, 2,000 of whom were members of the group's military wing, the Iz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades
Relied on imports
The organization's order of battle was based on an offensive wing that fired rockets and mortars into Israel, and on ground forces who were deployed defensively. Hamas' military capabilities relied in great part on training and materials imported into Gaza from Iran, Syria and Lebanon.
"Despite attempts to put a positive image on its performance during the operation, the actual course of the fighting reveals a different story: Hamas ... accomplished little militarily, and their only real success was the continuation of rocket fire into Israel - which declined after three weeks of combat," the authors say.
They add that had Israel continued to pressure Hamas militarily, using its advantages in intelligence and technology, as well as the occupation of large portions of the Strip, "the IDF undoubtedly could have destroyed Hamas' military capabilities."
Such a possibility, the authors say, would have significantly increased the number of casualties on both sides, but in the end Hamas would not have remained in control of Gaza, even though sporadic resistance may have continued.
Hamas' failed gamble
Cohen and White describe Hamas' decision in December not to renew the tahadiyeh, the unofficial cease-fire with Israel, as a failed gamble. They say Hamas had hoped to gain an "image of victory" by firing rockets and through pinpoint achievements such as the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers and the downing of aircraft or helicopters.
These aims failed, the authors say. The casualties, the economic damage and even the psychological damage caused by the rocket fire during the operation never reached the levels expected by Hamas. During the operation Hamas fired around 400 locally-made rockets and 200 other types of rockets, mostly Iranian-made.
The authors point out that at the start of the fighting the Hamas leadership in Gaza went underground and its influence on military matters dropped significantly. The organization's command structure in Damascus had even less control over developments.
According to the report, Hamas avoided direct engagements, and those that occurred lasted minutes, not hours.
"Hamas had planned to stand and fight, but the Iz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades proved unequal to the task ... and consequently they failed to match the public image Hamas had tried so hard to present of stalwart, proficient Islamic warriors," the report states.
The authors say Hamas will continue imitating Hezbollah's tactics and seek to equip itself with longer-range and more effective rockets. Less..
Added: Oct 21 2009 In: middle_east
By: ellhow 
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Comments - sort by newest to oldest
No shit. It is hardly what you would call a war. More like a massacre.
Lets see..... the IAF begin this "war" by bombing the police cadet graduation ceremonies, killing around 150 Gazan policemen, then continue raining terror on the helpless people of Gaza for another 21 days while a few Jihadists fire some sky rockets in retaliation.
Total dead Gazan women & children > 500
Total dead Israeli women & children < 5
Congratulations on your "victory"
Posted Oct-21-2009 by "AldolfoNicolas" (B)
The main Israeli objective was to put an end to the capabilities of their enemy to fire rockets. This was not achieved.
So Israel failed as well.
Posted Oct-21-2009 by "AldolfoNicolas" (B)
So Israel failed as well.
Black is white, right!
Posted Oct-21-2009 by "shrek_444" Premium
No missiles anymore. problem solved.
You missed the NY times the other day saying that war in the middle east is much more productive than endless failed negotiations.
The last thing you arab muslims really want is another azz kicking but it is coming very soon and Ll will cheer while you cry
Posted Oct-21-2009 by "SouthParkIndie" (R)
Hmmm... let's take a look at this into a bit more depth; Israel's objective was to stop the rockets, turn the population against Hamas, and also turn world opinions against them.
*All* of them failed to materialize.
So Mr Nazi Israeli, I think it's *you* that lost :)
Posted Oct-21-2009 by "Simon_W" (B)
So Israel failed as well.
Fallacy. The objective of the Israeli military army was to illustrate that it had the capability to escalate the violence well beyond Hamas' ability to resond.
Posted Oct-21-2009 by "Fenrisulfr" (R)
The loss not only illustrated the poor fighting ability of Hamas, and opened the worlds eyes to the cowardly tactics of Hamas, but it also proved how empty Iran's doctrine is for their satellites, and also what a paper tiger Iran is in regard to their military's ability to influence events in the middle east.
Posted Oct-21-2009 by "Fenrisulfr" (R)
Not only did the defeat of Hamas illustrate the poor fighting capability of Hamas, it also opened the eyes of the world to their cowardly tactics involving civilians.
Further, it revealed the emptiness of the strategic doctrine of Iran for its satellites. Further, it showed that Iran is a paper tiger with regard to its ability to influence military outcomes in the middle east.
Posted Oct-21-2009 by "Fenrisulfr" (R)
*All* of them failed to materialize.
So Mr Nazi Israeli, I think it's *you* that lost :)
we lost, we won, it is just another day. Jews have been fighting for THOUSANDS of years. in fact we invented violence fcuker.
Posted Oct-21-2009 by "Moniker" (R)
So Israel failed as well.
I think they just wanted them to stop shooting them at them.
As soon as they start up again, Israel will do the same thing.
They are lucky I'm not in charge, After about 50 rockets I would have turned Palastiene into a redioactive lake.
Posted Oct-21-2009 by "jim_a49" (R)
Go Israel!
Posted Oct-21-2009 by "shark44" (R)
So Israel failed as well.
Fallacy. The objective of the Israeli military army was to illustrate that it had the capability to escalate the violence well beyond Hamas' ability to resond.
By killing women and children.
Well done to the Nazi IDF; their objective was met.
(the murderous and cowardly c*nts that they are)
Posted Oct-21-2009 by "Simon_W" (B)
Lol ! - you quite sure about that ? - even the US is getting weary of the Nazi State of Israel :)
Posted Oct-21-2009 by "Simon_W" (B)
So Israel failed as well.
the main objective was to put an end to the rocket launching, not to the capabilty (you can really put an end to a capability...).
since januar 2009 the amount of rockets fired from gaza is almost zero per month.
efore that it was hundreds per month.
Posted Oct-21-2009 by "aydeo" (R)
*before that
Posted Oct-21-2009 by "aydeo" (R)