Obama got 365 electoral votes. McCain got 162. The last time an incumbent only got one term, it was Jimmy Carter. Jimmy Carter got a handy 297 electoral votes vs. Gerald Ford’s 240. While Obama’s 365 isn’t quite the 489 electoral vote win Ronald Reagan enjoyed in 1980, it’s still prodigious. And Obama is no Jimmy Carter. And whoever the Republicans run, it stands to reason it ain’t gonna be a Ronald Reagan.
What that means is that Obama is going to be our president for the next 8 years. Almost guaranteed. Republicans stand a much better chance of making gains in the house and senate in 2010 and 2014, and possibly 2012, given the lessons of history. But the presidency? In 2012? At this point, if you look at the changing Demographics of the country, the long term doesn’t look great for the Republicans.
What does it mean? It means that demographics are shifting, but not so much that there isn’t going to be a Republican president again in 8 to 12 years. It certainly doesn’t suggest there will be permanent Democrat majorities in the house and senate, although many on the left seem to expect that.
But the maps do indicate that Democrats have a solid electoral strategy, and they may be able to play it often and better in the future. They may be able to enjoy 16 years in the Whitehouse before the Republicans find a way to respond. If then. Urban areas, which almost always go blue, are expanding in the south and west, and it shows in the election returns. And, if you trace Reagan through Obama, you see that big electoral prizes like California used to be able to go Republican and, while there’s still a lot of red in California, it’s not enough to overcome the heavy democrat voting in dense urban areas.
As always seems to be the case, central planning is going to be our undoing.
But the maps alone don’t guarantee an Obama victory in 2012. They just say, “Sure. It’s doable.”
It’s history that says Obama will in in 2012. It’s tough to unseat the incumbent party after one term. Almost never happens. Add to that historical challenge the fact of Obama’s charisma and eloquence, and the distinct electoral majority he managed to achieve, and any Republican running against him in 2012 is on a suicide mission. They better have something really unique, a really untried and different strategy–cough, cough, Ron Paul–or they might as well forget it. Mike Huckabee? Otherwise known as McCain dressed in a church?
The conclusion is foregone.
Click to view image: '7d9bdf12d686-badassobama.jpg'
|Liveleak on Facebook|