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Report warns of post-oil crisis

Oil production will peak in the period between 2011 and 2013, causing rising fuel prices and devastating damage to the global economy, a new report found.
The oil age is coming to an end, and sooner than most people may think. The shift to a new energy age won't be easy, and the world's economies will have to act sooner rather than later to prevent the global economy from being severe damaged -- that is the warning from a new report issued by the U.K. Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security, an alliance of eight British companies drawn from across the economic spectrum.

The report, titled "The Oil Crunch: Securing the UK's Energy Future," highlights the problems the global economy will face after oil has peaked and examines energy alternatives to best sustain the post-oil period. It claims peak oil is a much greater threat to Britain than terrorism and foresees oil prices much higher than this summer's $147-a-barrel peak. The report is the first multi-company alarm bell to be sounded on peak oil, an issue that has divided the energy world for decades.

OPEC governments and some oil companies argue that because of existing reserves, new findings and technological advancements, crude oil production will meet growing demand for decades to come. Others, and they have become more numerous and vocal, argue that an oil peak -- after which production will steadily and inevitably fall -- is imminent. This now includes even big oil officials.

"I think that easy oil and easy gas -- that is, fuels that are relatively cheap to produce and very easy to get to the market -- will peak somewhere in the coming 10 years," Jeroen van der Veer, chief executive officer of Shell, said in June 2008.

The report sought two expert opinions on oil supply, the first from Chris Skrebowski of Peak Oil Consulting, an industry expert known as a leading advocate of the early peak scenario, and the second from oil and gas giant Royal Dutch Shell.

Skrebowski predicts that global oil production will peak in the period between 2011 and 2013 and then decline steadily, with harder-to-extract reserves failing to fill the gap in time to avoid a supply crunch. "After 2010, meeting any incremental oil demand will be very difficult as the incremental supply is insufficient," Skrebowski writes in his analysis. "After 2010, prices are likely to rise strongly to reconcile available supply and demand." He also warns that the entire system may crumble much sooner if a number of huge, long-established oil fields go into terminal decline simultaneously.

Shell, in turn, foresees oil production to rise during the next years and then flatten by 2015; with the help of unconventional sources like tar sands, production will remain on a plateau until the 2020s, Shell predicts.

"We find it of great concern that both our risk opinion-providers agree that the age of 'easy oil' is over. If so, fast-growing alternative energy supplies become imperative, even if production flattens in 2015 as Shell suggests," the task force said, adding that, based on its own research and analysis, it was finding Skrebowski's steady decline theory "highly probable" and the collapse option "possible."

This is not because the world is running out of oil. But it's running out of cheap oil -- crude that is easily extracted and refined.

"Only the hard-to-find (oil) remains and all too often is found in the most challenging environments and the least attractive countries. While the 'easy oil' can readily be turned into large production flows to meet demand, the difficult, unconventional oils can only be mobilized slowly and expensively," the report found.

And the hard-to-find oil won't be there in time and in enough quantity to offset falling production of cheap oil and growing consumption in the developing countries.

The countries that still have reserves of cheap oil may then alter their behavior, according to Lord Ron Oxburgh, a former Shell chairman.

Countries like Saudi Arabia or Russia are "starting to regard their shrinking oil and gas resources as something to be husbanded," Oxburgh wrote in the report's foreword. "King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia recently described his response to new finds: 'No, leave it in the ground ... our children need it.' In other words, even those who have less expensive oil may wish to exploit it slowly and get the best possible price for it."

The report therefore advises the British government to take peak oil more seriously, also because its economic impact will hit Britain (and the rest of the world) as early as the next three to five years -- so earlier than climate change.

The task force, which includes the firms Arup, First, Foster & Partners, Scottish and Southern Energy, Solarcentury, Stagecoach, Virgin and Yahoo!, has a series of concrete proposals to soften the crash after oil has peaked. The group wants

-- governments and companies to be more transparent about oil reserves;

-- governments to combine efforts to deal with oil depletion and climate change in the post-Kyoto climate negotiations;

-- governments to draw up their own national response plans to peak oil;

-- governments to push energy savings and renewable energy sources.

The world's governments need to act as quickly as possible, the report says.

"If we wait until an energy supply crisis is upon us before becoming serious about implementing sustainable solutions, in the ensuing dislocation we could no longer be able to muster the resources required."


Click to view image: '248288-peakoilgraphbg.jpg'

Added: Nov-10-2008 
By: GI-Gizmo
In:
News, Other
Tags: oil, peak, production, runs, out, saudi, arabia, russia, shell
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  • That's pretty humiliating to glance at the related articles on the right and remember that Saudi Arabia is making the most massive strides toward green technology more then anyone else. They're going to be peddling oil to western nations addicted to oil as their economies burn to the ground trying to adjust. Of course you can always say screw that and DRILL DRILL DRILL baby!

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • We knew this since the 60's.

    Just too many people voted Republican over the last 40 years to do anything about it.

    And spare me the "DemoCrits stood in the way of every plan to develop our own resources" bullshit.

    The Republicans stood in the way of every plan to move away from finite resources.

    The word "Green" is as evil as "regulation" to Republicans. With "regulation" another thing Republicans crushed recently. Leaving us in sorry shape More..

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • They said the same thing was going to happen in the early 90s...

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • A report like this needs to be placed on the front of time magazine, or a magazine of equivalent popularity. More people need to become aware, sooner rather than later.

    I sense the beginning of the resourse war(s).

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • I love it, see how easy it is to push a Mineral997's button...

    Posted Nov-12-2008 By 

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  • SOURCE:
    http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Analysis_Report_warns_of_post-oil_crisis_999.html

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • it be fine,there are countries that are sitting on oil fields ready for it!

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • BTW- There is no such thing as Peak Oil.. its a myth. Thanks.

    Posted Nov-11-2008 By 

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  • The oil age is coming to an end sooner than later, and what has the Dumbya Regime done to help that problem get solved?
    Ignore it.

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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    • Oh they did? Any sources for that?

      Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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    • Source this. %UF_161043b5%

      Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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    • they didnt do anything because the dem congress wouldnt pass anything. now that the dems will get a lot of power in 2009, they can pass all of their stupid energy reforms and left wing ideas without and checks and balances. the dems will run the US into the ground faster than the reps could ever have dreamed. With great power comes great responsibility, and i dont think the dems have what it takes to right the US or the world. The first African American president will be a 1 term-er.

      Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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    • Get over it, you and your ignorant ilk lost big time in the landslide Nov.4-08.
      You're just another sore loser!
      lol

      Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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    • Lol ok, wtf is ilk? thats a new one to me. I dont even live in the US currently and im neither dem nor rep. I didnt really care who won this election, both choices were sub par imo. I think the Dems will abuse their power and blow their chance to help the country. We will see in 4 years.

      PS, using dates doesnt make you sound intelligent.

      Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • You won't hear the details but I'm guessing Hugo Chavez is next on our list of executable targets. I'm just throwing it out there that this man has changed the flow of petroleum and I'm sure we have operatives in Venezuela now planning his days..

    You know who the last person was who couldn't be trusted with their oil supply? I'll give you all one guess..

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • Hubbert did not just casually suggest there would be a meeting between production and reserve curves. More specifically he wrote:

    "On the basis of the present estimates of the ultimate reserves of world pretroleum and natural gas, it appears that the culmination of world production of these products should occur within half a century (ie. by 2006)

    The problem of falling prices for oil was solved for Shell by Hubbert's theory. They are attempting to do the same thing now while their pro More..

    Posted Nov-12-2008 By 

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  • Name him and tell me what happened to him.

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • You peak oil doomsayers seem to think we're going from a limited reserve like a countdown of some sort. Worldwide reserves are RISING faster than we can consume it.

    They've barely touched the surface of Iraq and it has the second largest reserves in the world.

    We're in no danger of running out of oil. I cannot stress that enough.

    You need to look at the sources of this "information". They are often times the ones who stand to make the greatest profit or who would greatly benefit More..

    Posted Nov-12-2008 By 

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    • Let's say that Iraq miraculously discovers another 100 billion barrels under the sand. The U.S. alone at 21 million barrels a day would burn through that in about 13 years.

      What doesn't click with you that oil is finite and will cease to be a viable energy source THIS century?

      Are you reading some of those "science" books that says that oil is a "renewable resource?"

      It's not that oil will be in short supply per se, but the ability to produce the amount needed on a dail More..

      Posted Nov-12-2008 By 

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  • B.S

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • What clicks with me that it won't happen this century is from history, not science. It didn't happen under the same "someday" scenario Shell predicted would happen in 2006 and it won't happen in 2016 either.

    To say "It's not that oil will be in short supply per se, but the ability to produce the amount needed on a daily basis will decrease quickly" makes absolutely no sense to me and since you didn't back it up with any other information or facts, it seems that that stateme More..

    Posted Nov-12-2008 By 

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  • Ahh red pill, I didn't expect much else from you.. but thanks for playin..

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • LOL you guys are being duped by the information that is being released BY THE OIL COMPANIES themselves. Let me ask you why in the world would oil companies announce that there's a lot of its product out there?? They'd bust their own market, hence the peak oil theory. It's a MYTH and there is no PEAK inside of 10 years or even 20!

    Please don't get your information off of WIKIopedia since ANYONE can post and alter data there, ESPECIALLY revisionist oil theories on Peak Oil. They have revised More..

    Posted Nov-14-2008 By 

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  • Down with oil!~ ....oil~ is the root of all evil!~ comes from within the earth (hell) haha!~ time we start looking to the heavens~ Hydrogen/Solar~ anything else for crying out loud!~ fuck Iran and fuck Valenzuela

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • also, one report out of ten fucking million.

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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    • Yes.

      ...and of that ten million, even the most optomistic says oil will peak in 20-30 years, rather than in 5.

      It's still going away.

      Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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    • One report that says the same thing as the other 10 million. Peak oil is just around the corner. That is, unless the global economy tanks, which will delay the peak by a few months.

      Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • Good post, GI-G !

    @Too_much_noise
    Good intel/info, thx !

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • I want to know why the price of gasoline has gone down so much. Is it supply and demand? I feel bad as I traded in my SUV for a small 4 cyl car and now I don't have a 4 x 4 that I really needed but couldn't afford the gas when the prices when so high. I am pissed. What is going on?

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • This is the biggest internet economic myth around. We are NOT running out of oil!!!! Iraq has the second largest oil reserves in the world next to Saudi Arabia. We (Big Oil- Exxon/Mobile, Shell, etc.) have had a deal in place with the Saudis NOT to drill in Iraq since 1927 and the war we are currently in was started and maintained to SUPPRESS Iraq's oil capabilities and maintain a cap on their oil production. If Iraq's oil supply was utilized, oil would be $15 a barrel and they would margina More..

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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    • Find me an estimate from ANY source that says oil production has more than 20-30 years, tops, before oil peaks.

      Even the U.S. government shows oil peaking prior to
      2010. Geologists anf petrologist believe it has already happend.

      It's not a matter of "running out" of oil. It's a matter of supply not being able to come close to the
      demand.


      World population doubled between 1900 and 1960.
      It double again between 1960 and 2000. At this
      rate, it will double again by 2040.
      More..

      Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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    • They said the same thing back in 1956 and we were supposed to be "peaking" in 2000..

      World oil production today stands at more than twice the 15-billion-a-year maximum projected by Shell in 1956 and reserves are climbing. Iraq has 112 billion proven barrels and less than 3000 operating wells compared to ONE MILLION in Texas.

      Your biggest problem is relying on government statistics for your information and they are purposely flawed.

      You start drilling in Iraq and its reserves wi More..

      Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • Comment of user 'rclark951' has been deleted by author (after account deletion)!
    • back in the 1970s. We imported about 30 but less than 40% of oil from the Arabs.... If we get oil shocks, well Obama is going to shit a brick, because his days are numbered.

      Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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    • Comment of user 'rclark951' has been deleted by author (after account deletion)!
  • Evil, not geology, not Democrats, not Republicans has a choke-hold on energy. Nature is prepared to give us crude at $12 a barrel where it was and should be. Look into that fact and you won't be squabbling who's smarter and more qualified to criticize our broken two party system we're entrenched in.

    Why spend money for alternative sources of energy when the real problem is Big Oil's international policies regarding the supply? We're spinning our wheels over a perpetuated myth that the supply More..

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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  • Excuse me, I also meant that figure excludes Venezuela as well.

    So 1.189 TRILLION barrels which EXCLUDES Iraq (which if you tapped into Iraq's potential you'd double the reserve supply inside of 10 years) and Venezuela in which Venezuela holds another 1.36 TRILLION barrels of super heavy tar oil. Venezuela holds 90% of the Earth's heavy oil reserves.

    So I reiterate: THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF OIL IN THIS WORLD, ONLY A SHORTAGE OF KNOWLEDGE OF HOW OIL IS CONTROLLED.

    Posted Nov-10-2008 By 

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