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Italian Scientists Convicted Of Manslaughter For Not Predicting Killer Earthquake




(October 22, 2012)- Earthquake experts around the world say they are appalled by an Italian court's decision to convict six scientists on manslaughter charges for failing to predict the deadly quake that devastated the city of L'Aquila. They warned the ruling could severely harm future scientific research.

The court in L'Aquila sentenced the scientists and a government official Monday to six years in prison, ruling that they didn't accurately communicate the risk of the earthquake in 2009 that killed more than 300 people.

The trial centered on a meeting a week before the 6.3-magnitude quake struck. At the meeting, the experts determined that it was "unlikely" but not impossible that a major quake would take place, despite concern among the city's residents over recent seismic activity.

Prosecutors said the defendants provided "inaccurate, incomplete and contradictory information about the dangers" facing L'Aquila.

The court agreed, convicting the six scientists from the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) and a member of the Civil Protection Agency. It also ordered the Italian authorities to pay 7.8 million euros ($10 million) in damages.

Seismologists were aghast at the court's decision, noting that earthquakes remain impossible to forecast with any kind of accuracy.

"To predict a large quake on the basis of a relatively commonplace sequence of small earthquakes, and to advise the local population to flee" would constitute "both bad science and bad public policy," said David Oglesby, an associate professor at the earth sciences faculty of the University of California, Riverside.

"If scientists can be held personally and legally responsible for situations where predictions don't pan out, then it will be very hard to find scientists to stick their necks out in the future," Oglesby said in a statement.

Roger Musson, the head of seismic hazard and archives at the British Geological Survey, echoed that feeling in a comment published on the organization's Twitter feed.

"It's chilling that people can be jailed for giving a scientific opinion in the line of their work," he said.

Comments from one of the defendants -- Enzo Boschi, the former president of the INGV -- suggested the scientists were shellshocked by their conviction.

"I'm dejected, despairing. I still don't understand what I'm accused of," Boschi said after the ruling, according to ANSA, Italy's official news agency.

He and the six others convicted Monday will remain free during the appeal process.

The Italian geophysics institute expressed "regret and concern" about the verdict in a statement Monday. It said the ruling "threatens to undermine one of the cornerstones of scientific research: that of freedom of investigation, of open and transparent discussion and sharing of results."

Some experts have argued that the issue was a failure of communications, not calculations.

Domenico Giardini, who held Boschi's old job at the institute for several months, said last year that the trial was about "the number of weak points in the communication chain."

"We all have to work on new, and more clear, protocols, on the transfer of information," said Giardini, who stepped down from the presidency of the institute earlier this year in order to continue his research work in Switzerland.

Survivors of the 2009 quake, some of whom who lost relatives or property in the disaster, have voiced anger at the officials who downplayed the risks despite the worries expressed by residents.

"I can understand the grief of people who lost loved ones and the frustration that people feel when terrible events happen — especially ones outside their control," said Oglesby. "Convicting honest scientists of manslaughter does nothing to help this situation, and may well put a chill on exactly the kind of science that could save lives in the future."

The ruling may well change the way experts disclose their opinions, according to David Spiegelhalter, a professor specializing in the public understanding of risk at Cambridge University in Britain.

"L'Aquila trial shows public scientists need to take media communication very seriously," he wrote on his Twitter account. "And get indemnity."


Added: Oct-23-2012 Occurred On: Oct-23-2012
By: Thickhanger
In:
Other News, WTF, Science and Technology, Other
Tags: science, crime, WTF, Thickhanger,
Location: L'Aquila, Abruzzo, Italy (load item map)
Marked as: approved
Views: 1251 | Comments: 64 | Votes: 1 | Favorites: 0 | Shared: 0 | Updates: 0 | Times used in channels: 3
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  • Ridiculous. Next they'll be fining weathermen for saying there was a 20% chance of rain when it turned out to be 30%.

    Posted Oct-23-2012 By 

    (4)

  • They should have asked the pope to have a word with the big lad up stairs for the date and time of the quake. THE JUDGE SHOULD BE PUT OUT TO PASTURE.

    Posted Oct-23-2012 By 

    (4)

  • If I was a scientist in Italy in any field. I'd be on the next plane out.
    Let Italian government & justice system use the Mayan calender for all their future predictions

    Posted Oct-23-2012 By 

    (4)

  • They should be able to appeal to a higher court, and eventually to the European Court. It's clear this is a ridiculous decision - the Italians have made themselves look like a laughing stock. What scientists in the field would work there now?

    Posted Oct-23-2012 By 

    (2)

  • so are they gonna put the guys in jail for building false buildings that fail to stand against earthquake? lol sounds so dumb

    Posted Oct-23-2012 By 

    (2)

  • Comment of user 'RugOutFromUnderYou' has been deleted by author!
  • They have arrested the Pope for failing to predict teenage pregnancy is caused by condom ban.

    Posted Oct-23-2012 By 

    (1)

  • this sentence is just unreal. either the buildings were deficient or not built per seizmic code to begin with.

    Posted Oct-23-2012 By 

    (1)

  • I see they have changed very little from their Mussolini days.

    Posted Oct-23-2012 By 

    (1)

  • This is one of the bigger travesties of justice I have seen.

    The earthquake was an Act of God. The scientists only saw a pattern of earthquakes that had repeated many times before without major damage.

    Convicting them of a crime based only on them failing to guess the one in a ten-thousand chance of an actual earthquake is seriously unfair.

    Even if they did warn, the town would have been destroyed anyway and likely many residents killed.

    Posted Oct-23-2012 By 

    (1)

  • give me a fucking break

    **shaking head**

    fuck humanity

    what about arresting the persons who engineered and built these shit buildings that could not sustain an earthquake???

    Posted Oct-23-2012 By 

    (1)

  • Well one thing's clear.... Italy will no longer have scientists.... I thought Italy was a civilized country with a little moral common sense but i guess i was wrong

    Posted Oct-23-2012 By 

    (1)

  • stupid stupid stupid and completely expected from such a backward cesspool of religious fanaticism.

    Posted Oct-23-2012 By 

    (1)

  • I bet if the scientists reported an earthquake that didn't happen, they'd go to jail for false information and causing a public threat.

    Posted Oct-23-2012 By 

    (1)

  • The fault should lie with the local councils and building regulaters.They should have ensured the buildings could withstand quakes better.

    Posted Oct-23-2012 By 

    (1)