Ukraine : Who is behind... FINAL.

by Emmanuel Todd ...

Extract from a famous french blog (Rank : 3) in France .

Published under CC. Translation by me and I'm so sorry...

Part 1 :

Part 2 :

Part 3 :
Part 4 :

Emmanuel Todd : The integration of the Ukrainian population by the German system would represent a qualitative jump in this dynamic imbalance.

Olivier Berruyer / : Still, it's a large population, but poor and produces little ...

Yes, but the annexation of the poor, geographically contiguous and politically controllable, in a globalized world, thirsty of cheap labor , this can be an advantage. Our world is now post-democratic and non-egalitarian ; so it conceals potentialities of expansion in areas with low wage rates.
And the benefit of Ukraine for the new German empire, is precisely that it does not exist. It is double or even triple. It is a system in decay.
In fact, Ukraine has never existed as a functioning national entity . This is a false state, which is in bankruptcy.
The fundamental proof of the Ukrainian state disability, and this has not been emphasized, is the role played by leaders of western Ukrainians, on the outskirts. It is occasionally unworthy and count the number of their members, their ministers, but the Ukrainians in the West, as a whole, represent only a small thing.

So, what is striking is the failure of the central Ukrainians, that is to say, those who speak Ukrainian, who not so much like the Russians, who are originally from orthodox religion but who are not tempted by the far right.
The rise of Western Ukraine shows how central Ukraine, majority of citizens, is fragmented and unable to organize, in a pre-state shape. The confrontation that takes place between the extreme right and the Ukrainian pro-Russian eastern Ukraine highlights the historical lack of the country.

Western Ukrainians want to join Europe. It's completely normal for them: why right-wing extremists who have a history of collaboration with Nazi Germany they would refuse to join a Europe under German control ?

That said, this exceptional Ukrainian gain is not realized by Germany. The game, or rather the war is just beginning. For central Ukrainians, I think the issue is not resolved. The system will continue to disintegrate: GDP will contract, the situation will get worse, and I think that's the real reason why the Russians are so cautious, so few want to wage war and, contrary to we said, do not want to annex pieces of Ukraine. Russia does not fear Western sanctions. But she did not want to be hated in central Ukraine. Ukraine is suspicious vis-à-vis Russia in its central mass at this stage, but we must recognize the Russians great historical ability to play with space and time.

After two years of treatment with German Europe, people will think of Kiev? Maybe they will want to return to Moscow. A system that does not adhere decays, it continues to disintegrate.

Returning to the overall strength of the American system, which is so far from the Ukraine, and therefore very little able to benefit from its integration-disintegration by the "Western system."

The American system, according to Zbigniew Brzezinski, is the control by the United States of two major industrial nations of Eurasia, that is to say, Japan and Germany. But it works to be provided in the event that America itself is clearly superior in terms of industrial weight.

Since 1928, American industrial production represented 45% of total world industrial product. After the war, in 1945, America still accounted for 45%. America has fallen to 17.5% : the Brzezinski control system of Eurasia can hold given the current numbers. As I noted in "After the Empire", its trade with Ukraine is insignificant.

In Eastern Europe, NATO secures in fact a German space.
Should be updated for the use of Washington, the old expression "A war to the King of Prussia."

In this context, what future can there be for German-American relations ?

If you live in the enchanted world of the currently dominant ideology, as the newspaper Le Monde, Francois Hollande, who is also an anti-imperialist naive, the Western bloc, union of America and Europe, Japan remained under guardianship, can and must contain Russia. If we assume a good strategic understanding and strong collaboration, the West could defeat the Russian economy. Maybe ...
But there is also China, India, Brazil, the world is wide ...

But if you go in the world of strategic realism, which sees the reality of power relations, without reference to the values and myths, we find that there are now two major developed industrial worlds, America on the one hand and the new German Empire on the other.
Russia is a secondary issue. We must therefore consider everything else, in the next twenty years, that the East-West conflict : the rise of the German system suggests that the United States and Germany go to war.

This is an intrinsic logic based on the balance of power and domination. It is my sense unrealistic to imagine a peaceful agreement in the future.

At this stage, however, we can reintroduce the notion of value. But just to point out that, for an anthropologist, realistic in its way, or a historian of the long term, the United States and Germany do not have the same values.
Faced with the economic stress of the Great Depression, America, liberal-democratic country, produced Roosevelt, while Germany, the country of authoritarian and non-egalitarian culture produced Hitler.

The American belief in equality is certainly a belief relative. The United States is the leading country in the rise of economic inequality - not to mention the segregation of blacks, the problem is far from resolved as evidenced by the riots Ferguson.
But it is also, at this stage, a leader in his attempt to build a unified world, with very diverse populations backgrounds. In that sense, Obama's election remains highly symbolic, despite the obvious fatigue of the president during his second term.

If we consider only the corpus of citizens of Germany, one can say that the rise of economic inequality remains reasonable, much lower than that seen in the Anglo-American world. But if the German system is seen in its European whole, integrating the low wages in Eastern Europe and wage compression in the South, one can identify a lot stronger unequal domination system growing.
Equality remaining concerns only the corpus of the dominant citizens Germans.

I will pick at this stage this concept of political science at the Belgian anthropologist Pierre van den Berghe: "the Herrenvolk democracy", that is to say, the Democracy of the people of lords.
Do not jump to the ceiling !
These words will not bring down the Earth - I recently expressed in the same terms in an interview with German newspaper "Die Zeit". Initially, Pierre van den Berghe applied this concept of ethnic democracy at the apartheid in South Africa, where there was a body of equal citizens, which worked perfectly along liberal and democratic rules, but the freedom and democracy hold only because there has ruled. Similarly for America at the time of segregation : the internal equality of white group was provided by the domination of the Indians, blacks ...

Similarly, one could categorize Israel as Herrenvolk democracy.
What is cohesion and freedom in Israeli democracy is ensured by the existence of a mass of hostile Arabs.

If I had to describe today's Europe, if I were to comment on the political level the economic map, I would say that Europe, or the German Empire began to take the general form of a Herrenvolk democracy with, at its heart, German democracy reserved for the dominant people, and around, a whole hierarchy of people more or less dominated whose votes did not matter.

It is understandable why, in this model, when we elect a president in France, it is happening nothing. Because he has no more power : specially on the monetary system. So we end up with a democracy where freedom of the press, of opinion, and others are perfectly satisfied ; where there is no problem, but where basically the stability of the system is the subconscious solidarity within the group of dominants.

In Europe that is emerging, we could see the Germans as whites in America segregation. Today, political inequality is obviously stronger in the German system than the American system. The Greeks and others can not vote for elections to the Bundestag, while blacks and Latinos can to elections for president and Congress. The European Parliament is bogus, not the Congress.

After such an indictment, do you think we should be more vigilant towards Germany?

It is true that I am a pessimist. The probability that Germany is doing well down every day. It is already very low.
German authoritarian culture generates a systemic mental instability of their leaders when they are in a position of dominance - which had not happened since the war.

Their common historical failure - in a situation of domination - to imagine a peaceful and reasonable future for all re-emerges today as an export mania . And now added to these leaders interact with the Polish and Ukrainian absurd violence. Sadly, the fate of Germany is not a complete stranger to me.

How the Germans are they wrong? The median age or absence of military can give a brake to the process, but there is a weekly radicalization of the German position. Contempt of the English, Americans, Merkel shamelessly visit in Kiev. The report to the French, whose voluntary servitude is essential for the control of Europe, will be revealing.

But we know already. With the case of sales of Mistral to Russia, German leaders call now to French to liquidate their remaining military industry. German culture is non-egalitarian: it makes it difficult to accept an equal world. When they feel the strongest, the Germans live very badly some insubordination of the weaks, refusal perceived as unnatural, unreasonable.

In France, it is rather the opposite. Disobedience is a positive value. We live, it's a part of French charm because it also exists in France a mysterious potential of order and efficiency.

The report of the American discipline and inequality is complex and deserves another way analysis pages. Let's be brief, jump to the conclusion : the disciplined relationship inferior-superior German-style will be difficult to pass.

The Anglo-Saxon culture is not equal but it is really liberal. Equal, unequal, depending. Reasonable distinction made in families between brothers leads to the concept of reasonable difference between individuals and between nations.

This is also the reason for the success of the American model : the Anglo-American culture can reasonably manage international differences. In the end, it is clear that the two blocs - American and German - are antagonistic in nature. They combine all the generating elements of conflict : breaking gross economic balance, difference in values. As faster Russia will be out of the game, broken or marginalized, as these differences will speak. For me, the real current historical question, and no one asks, is this : Americans going to accept this new reality to see a Germany that threatens them, and if so when ?

When you prophesy a conflict between the American nation and the new German Empire, you are confident in you ?

Obviously not. I widen the field of forecasting. I describe a possible future, among other possible futures. Another would be a solidification of the Russia-China-India group to a continental bloc opposing the Euro-American Western bloc. But Eurasian bloc could not function with the addition of Japan, only able to put it in Western technological level. But what will Japan do ? For now, it is more loyal to the United States than Germany. But it might grow tired of the old Western conflicts. The current shock paralyzes its rapprochement with Russia, completely logical for him the energy and military point of view, an important element of the new policy being printed by Japanese Prime Minister Abe.

This is another risk to the United States, derived from the new German aggressive course. Various future are possible but not infinite; 4 or 5 maybe ... I went back to reading science fiction in order to clear my brain and my mind open. I highly recommend a similar exercise for people who lead us, who, without knowing where they are going, walk with a purpose.

Interview for freely reproduced in a non-commercial (like the rest of the articles on the site, see Creative Commons license).

I'll be happy to read your comments.