This may be the end of Minsk-2 truce in Ukraine

Renewed clashes in Mar’inka right next to Donetsk are, for now, accompanied by conflicting
messages.

Mar’inka, a town next to Donetsk, has been partly occupied by UAF and partly by DPR since the start of Minsk-2. Who attacked whom is not yet clear, both sides are blaming the other for starting an offensive. We do know that both sides are using at least some heavy weapons and taking noticeable losses (more than 10 KIA on each side).

However, what is clear is that this flare-up has set in motion a chain of aggressive moves from
the UAF side:

- They have closed half of the border crossings with DPR

- They have cut off water and power wherever they could (both DPR and LPR)

- Most importantly, they have re-deployed the heavy artillery and resumed the
terror shelling campaign against Donetsk

This would suggest that UAF started the clashes, as all of this would require a
degree of organization and pre-planning, but that is not certain.

What is certain is that the shelling of mines and power stations has trapped miners underground
in at least 2 Donetsk mines (about nine hundred miners total), as well as inflicted random damage throughout the city (see list below).

Considering the www.liveleak.com/view?i=9fe_1433296063 (see video), etc., it looks like Minsk-2 may meet the
same fate as Minsk-1 – militia will eventually be forced to attack to stop the terror shelling, unless OSCE or Western politicians put enough pressure on Poroshenko to stop it soon.



[Donetsk burns. On pro-Kiev resources, this photo is captioned "Insurgents are shelling Donetsk again". Would be funny if it wasn't so sad.]

As for the reasons for this, there could be plenty:

- It seems Russia has reached an agreement with Moldova whereby it re-opens its market to Moldovan goods, and Moldova lifts the Transnistria blockade. Ergo, the attempts to lure Russia into conflict on that side have failed = back to the usual shelling.

Any other theory would require an explanation as to why Kiev recently blockaded Transnistria in the first place – the tiny 0.5 million state poses no military or subversive threat. The only possible conclusion is that the blockade was intended to re-ignite tensions with Russia without violating Minsk.

- Kiev has failed to reach a financial agreement with creditors, and has passed a law allowing it
to refuse to pay debts, which would amount to a default. A wave of conflicts between the regime and extremist paramilitaries saps military strength. Regime probably needs to go to war before it collapses from within.

- Kiev believes its army has been rebuilt, and it doesn’t have a vulnerable position like Debaltsevo this time around. They may simply think they will win this time around.

- DPR believes their army has been rebuilt, and they don’t want to surrender to Kiev regime without a fight, as per Minsk-2.

The fog of war should clear up shortly, and we will know more. Stay tuned.

===

List of artillery hits so far (from last 24 hr? ):

Donetsk, Petrovskiy District:

- St. <span title="Соколовского, 2 - попадание в 4 этаж, снаряд не разорвался

">Sokolovsky, 2 - hit on the 4th floor, the projectile did not explode

- St. <span title="Красногоровская, 20 - попадание возле дома, повреждено остекление

">Krasnogorovka 20 - hit near the house, damaged windows

- St. Moskvina, №?<span title="- попадание в дом, поврежден

"> – House hit, damaged

- St. Kryukov, №? <span title="- попадание в хоз.постройку

">– Hit on uninhabited building

- St. <span title="Крамарчука, 10, 12 - повреждено остекление

">Kramarchuk, 10, 12 - damaged windows

- St. Socialism, №? <span title="- повреждено остекление

">- Damaged windows

- St. <span title="Удальцова, 16 - попадание в газопровод

">Udaltsov, 16 – pipeline hit

- St. <span title="Менделеева - попадание

">Mendeleev - hit

- St. Fedorovsky, №? <span title="- попадание в первый проулок в угловой дом

">- Hit the corner of the house on the first alley

- St. Alyabiev, №? <span title="- попадание в забор

">– Hit on the fence

- St. Alyabiev, №? <span title="- ч/с, попадание в дом напротив ЖЭКа и котельной, снаряд влетел во второй этаж здания и разорвался внутри

">- hit the house across from the housing department and the boiler room, a shell
flew into the second floor of the building and exploded inside

<span title="- Таймырка - в ЖЭКе ударной волной повреждено остекление

">-Taymyrka - shock wave damaged windows in district admin

- St. <span title="Добровольского, 1 - попадание в 1й подъезд

">Dobrovolsky, 1 - hit 1st stairwell of the house

- St. Iulskaya, №№? <span title="- попадание в два дома, возгорание

">- Two homes hit, fire started

- St. <span title="Ревякина, 31 - повреждено остекление

">Revyakina 31 - damaged windows

- St. Dorokhova, №? <span title="- попадание в дом

">– House hit

- St. <span title="Нахимовская - попадание в начале улицы

">Nakhimov - hit the beginning of the street

- St. <span title="Юпитерская, 14 - женщина получила осколочное ранение в голову

">Yupiterskaya, 14 - woman injured by shrapnel to the head

<span title="- ГАИ - попадание в заправку на переезде 21й шахты

">- Police station - hit the gas station at the crossing next to Mine #21

- St. Molodogvardeytsev, №? <span title="- попадание в крышу дома

">- Hit the roof of the house

<span title="- попадания в лесхоз

">- Hit the forest farm

<span title="( Свернуть )



"><span title="ДОНЕЦК, КИРОВСКИЙ РАЙОН:

">DONETSK, Kirov district:

<span title="- попадания в поле возле мкр Бирюзова (за ост.65 маршрута)

">- Hits into a field near Biruzovo district (by #65 bus stop)

<span title="- мкр Бирюзова - попадания на дачный поселок

">- Biruzivo district – hits at the summer homes

- St. <span title="Бирюзова, 55 - попадание в дом

">Biruzovo, 55 – hit the house

- St. <span title="Бирюзова, 56 - повреждено остекление в подъезде

">Biruzovo, 56 - damaged windows

- St. <span title="Бирюзова - синий магазин возле 50х домов посечен осколками

">Biruzovo - blue store near house #50 houses has serious frag damage

<span title="- шахта им.Скочинского - попадание в эл.цех и подстанцию, возгорание, ранен мужчина

">- Skochinskii Mine - hit on the power station and substations, fire started, man
wounded

<span title="- попадание на территорию шахты им.Е.Т.Абакумова, район обогатительной фабрики

">- Hit the territory im.E.T.Abakumova mine, concentrator area

- St. <span title="Абакумова - попадания в районе домов №85-91 (крайние 5-тиэтажки), частично повреждено остекление

">Abakumov - hits in the area of houses №85-91 (5-story residential buildings), windows
damaged

- St. Novokakhovsky, №? <span title="- попадание в хоз.постройку, в доме повреждено остекление

">– Hit uninhabited building, damaged windows in a home

- St. <span title="Бойченко - попадание, по непроверенным данным во дворе погиб один человек

">Boychenko - hit, according to unconfirmed reports, one person died

- St. <span title="Кирова, 441 - во дворе "Реала" мужчина получил осколочное ранение в спину, несовместимое с жизнью

">Kirov, 441 - in the courtyard, a man received a shrapnel wound in the back, died

<span title="- Текстильщик - попадание в рынок "Сокол", возгорание



">- Textilschik - Hit on the market "Sokol", fire started


<span title="ДОНЕЦК, КУЙБЫШЕВСКИЙ РАЙОН:

">DONETSK, Kuibyshev district:

- St. <span title="Лузина, 16 - попадание, тяжелое ранение в живот получила женщина

">Luzin, 16 - hit, a woman seriously wounded in the stomach

<span title="- пр. Кремлевский, 42 - попадание возле дома, разрушен забор, поврежден газопровод



">- Pr. Kremlin, 42 - hit near the house, the fence is destroyed, damaged pipeline

<span title="ДОНЕЦК, КИЕВСКИЙ РАЙОН:

">Donetsk, Kiev district:

- St. <span title="Политбойцов, 3 - прямое попадание в крышу, 3 подъезд

">Politboytsov, 3 - a direct hit on the roof, staircase 3

- St. <span title="Политбойцов, 4 - поврежден осколками

">Politboytsov 4 - damaged by fragments

- St. <span title="Политбойцов, 6 - попадание в крышу, в двигатель лифта

">Politboytsov 6 - hit the roof and engine lift

<span title="- попадание возле Киевского РИКа

">- Hit near Kiev RIK

<span title="- 4 попадания на территорию пожарной части Киевского района

">- 4 hits on the Kiev district fire station

<span title="- попадание на базу Донецкгорсвета, ранен сторож

">- Hits on the Donetsk City Electrical building, security guard wounded

<span title="- Полиграф - забрали мужчину с осколочными ранениями живота, грудной клетки



">- Poligraf - a man with shrapnel wounds to the abdomen, chest, taken to hospital


<span title="ПГТ СТАРОМИХАЙЛОВКА (на границе с Кировским районом):

">PGT STAROMIHAYLOVKA (on the border with the Kirov district):

- St. Day, №№? <span title="- повреждены 3 дома

">- Damaged 3 houses

- St. Chapaeva, №? <span title="- поврежден дом



">- Damaged house

Krasnogorovka:

<span title="- попадание в больницу, возгорание в неврологии (крыша)

">- Hit to the hospital, a fire in neurology (roof)

<span title="- прямое попадание в склад возле ЦСО

">- A direct hit in a warehouse near the CSO

- St. Nakhimov, №? <span title="- попадание

">- Hit

- St. <span title="Горького - попадание в шк.№3, возгорание

">Gorky - Hit into school №3, fire

- St. <span title="Восточная, 2, 3 - попадание

">Eastern, 2, 3 - hit

- St. <span title="Восточная, 5 - повреждено остекление

">East 5 - damaged windows

- St. Ostrovsky, №? <span title="- попадание

">– Hit

- St. March 8, №? <span title="- попадание в гараж, во многих домах повреждено остекление

">– Direct hit on the garage, many homes have damaged windows

- St. <span title="Маяковского, 5 - попадание в дом, снесло крышу

">Mayakovsky, 5 - hit into the house, roof blown off

- St. <span title="Маяковского, 18 - попадание

">Mayakovsky, 18 - hit

- St. <span title="Солнечная, 5 - прямое попадание в квартиру на 5 этаже

">Sun, 5 - a direct hit on an apartment on the 5th floor

- Hits on the territory of the refractory plant

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