After alienating many host communities, Nusra is once again
gaining support due its military exploits and the prospect of a US-Russian air
coalition against the group.

There is a general assumption that the Syrian Al-Qaeda
affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra is weakening in the face of the regime of Bashar
al-Assad’s recent militarily achievements and international led airstrikes
against the group. The increase in the number of anti-Nusra demonstrations this
year, especially in Idlib, is usually cited as evidence to support this
assumption. Yet, according to sources close to the group, Nusra has accepted
more than 3,000 Syrians from Idlib and southern Aleppo into its ranks since February
alone. While Nusra is experiencing this extraordinary rate of recruitment,
other Western-backed groups in these areas are losing local support and
manpower. It is therefore important to look at the reasons behind this
significant increase in Nusra’s recruitment rate and what it portends for the
future.

Jabhat al-Nusra was established in Syria in late 2011 and
quickly gained a high profile amongst Syrians due to its valuable military
contributions against the Assad regime. Initially, Nusra employed persuasion
and gradual rule enforcement to increase its influence in areas under its
control and root itself within Syrian society. However, in 2014, the group
moved away from a soft power strategy and began attacking US-backed opposition
groups in an attempt to eliminate potential rivals. This shift in the group’s
strategy damaged support for Nusra among local populations and created new
tensions with other rebel groups. It also led to numerous demonstrations
against Nusra’s increasingly puritanical rule. “It was unprecedented to see
people criticizing Nusra let alone demonstrating against it. Nusra began losing
the support of foreign fighters as well as the support of local communities,”
said Mustafa Salah, a media activist in Aleppo.

The resumption of fighting in Syria, following the breakdown
of the temporary ceasefire that went into effect in late February, allowed
Nusra to begin regaining the support of local communities. In a bid to regain
its popularity, the group redoubled its military efforts and spearheaded
offensives against the Syrian regime on several different fronts
simultaneously. In March, the group launched an offensive in Hama and attacked
the regime headquarters in the southeastern suburbs of the city. Nusra also led
two other offensives in April, one in the southern Aleppo countryside and the
other in rural Latakia. Most of these attacks enjoyed limited successes but
nonetheless increased Nusra’s popularity and pushed other rebel groups to
increase their military cooperation with the Al-Qaeda affiliate, despite the
group’s previous attacks on some opposition groups.

Jabhat al-Nusra’s strategy has also taken advantage of the
decreasing level of international support to rebel groups. There has been a
noted increase in the level of frustration, especially among locals in Aleppo
and Idlib, toward rebel groups and their perceived insufficient actions taken
against Assad regime. Much of this inaction can be blamed on the lack of
sufficient international support provided to opposition groups, which
constrains their ability to advance against the Syrian regime militarily and
compete with Nusra’s influence. However, rebels have also been criticized for
being too preoccupied with internal differences instead of concentrating on
fighting the Assad regime. Under this growing hostility and suspicion toward
rebel groups, Nusra has been able to successfully demonstrate that it is the
most successful force currently facing off against the regime and portray its
military forces as an indispensable ally in the fight to defeat Assad. A rebel
fighter from Al-Jabha al-Shamiya group, who asked not to be identified,
elaborated, “When you see that opposition armed groups are doing more
politicking than fighting, and that their priority is to secure funds and
protect their gains, Nusra looks like the only option for those who want to
fight on the frontlines. I know many people who are joining Nusra because of
that [reason], which is something I am considering as well.” Moreover, Nusra
becoming a major target for the proposed US-Russian air coalition does not seem
to be an important deterrent to those currently joining the group. “The
Russians and the Americans have been bombing Nusra for years now. It will not
be any different if they attack together, instead of doing it separately,” said
an unnamed rebel fighter with Liwaa Ansar al-Khilafa, who also confided that he
is considering joining the group.

Nusra has also made changes to its long and strict
recruitment procedures, which have become more flexible in order to entice as
many new fighters as possible to join its ranks. The group initially recruited
members solely through candidature and recommendations from trusted sources.
Nominated members then had to commit to religious lessons and undergo military
competency testing to decide whether he should be sent immediately to the
frontlines or enrolled in military training. Finally, based on the nominee’s
religious and ideological commitment and the recommendations he received from
other members, it was decided whether the candidate would be accepted as formal
member of the force. However, Nusra has now pivoted to an open membership
policy that accepts almost all new recruits. “It has become so easy for anyone
to join Nusra without any recommendation. Some people are not even required to
undergo Sharia courses, especially if they work as double agents in rival
organizations. Moreover, you can either pledge allegiance to the group, which
will make you a member, or just pledge to fight with the group, which allows you
to fight with Nusra and receive some benefits without having to commit to full
membership,” said Abou Fares, an Syrian activist from Aleppo.

The restoration of Al-Qaeda’s power and popularity in Syria
represents a serious threat to rebel groups operating there, as well as a
potentially more intelligent and patient terrorist threat to the world than
ISIS in the long run. Much has been made about a proposed US-Russian air
coalition to specifically target Nusra. However, such an alliance could
actually be detrimental to the goal of rolling back the influence of Al-Qaeda,
as many Syrians would perceive it as yet another direct military intervention
to empower the Assad regime.The danger posed by Nusra can only be fully
counteracted by finding a political solution to the conflict in Syria.
Meanwhile, the international community should instead focus on protecting
civilians and providing sufficient support to opposition groups, both civil and
armed, to challenge Nusra’s influence in the near term.

Haid Haid is a Syrian researcher who focuses on foreign and
security policy, conflict resolution, and Kurdish and Islamist movements.https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/567204-al-qaeda-on-the-rise-in-syria

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