“Vietnamization” meant the transfer of power from the Americans to the surrogate Generals who would have held the fort for the Americans. It didnt work in Saigon, and it wont work in Kabul.



Karzai is fretting the ominous clouds over most of Afghanistan. The Talibs are coming as sure ad the Vietcong came.



The French are withdrawing from Kapsia and Mr Sarkozy who is expected to lose the upcoming elections, is campaigning to pull out NATO at the end of 2013.



The US flag and the French banners have come down, and the keys to the city have been handed over to Mr Karzai. However the fact remains that Mr Karzai doesn’t control very little outside his palace. Mr Sarkozy thinks that the infiltration in the so called Afghan National Army (ANR) has been underestimated.



The fact remains that the ANR by day and Talibs by night control the Afghan countryside.



Flag ceremonies are transferring power to the ANR. The Times reports that “So far, about 20 such ceremonies have taken place across the country, part of the unfolding plan for all NATO combat troops to leave Afghanistan by the end of 2014.”



These ceremonies and the US commitment to Karzai are as ephemeral as those made to the Vietnamese Generals.



The Times reports that “In this region, for example, which borders Pakistan, the Taliban militants still have power bases in districts within an hour’s drive of Jalalabad, and just to the north, in Kunar Province, they have fought pitched battles with American troops as recently as November.”



This is the reality on the ground. Major US intelligence reports say that the situation in Afghanistan remains grim.



The Times is right “In the air was the unspoken question of how committed the United States and other Western countries are to Afghanistan in the longer term, beyond the troop pullout in 2014.”



The US needs the supply lines opened through Pakistan–not to send new troops, but to begin the massive withdrawal from Pakistan. Most of the mercenaries will have left by this summer. The Pakistan Army is rebuilding the Pakistan Railways to allow the US to withdraw. The US will be paying for the continuation of the supply chain through Pakistan.



There is a wind of change, and an an air of defiance in the youth of Pakistan. No more! The lines have been drawn.The new Pakistan will be resurgent and non-compliant. Whether Imran Khan seeps the elections or just gets 40 seats is immaterial. No government in Islamabad will be able to make or continue the shady deals that were made in the next decade.



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