Republicans have been boasting of an upcoming Mid-Term election blowout...a bloodbath...a November to Remember. Hardly the words to characterize a race that now has no guarantee they will gain a majority in the Senate at all.
We can't wait to hear the spin.
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Democrats got a boost of good news yesterday in a batch of new tracking polls that show previously written-off Senate candidates in Pennsylvania, Colorado and Wisconsin running significantly closer to their Republican opponents. New polls yesterday also confirmed close margins in critical battlegrounds like Washington and West Virginia, but a Democratic comeback in either Pennsylvania, Colorado or Wisconsin would all but end Republican hopes to gain a majority in the U.S. Senate.
In Pennsylvania, two new surveys from the Muhlenberg College/Morning Call and from Democratic pollsters Public Policy Polling (PPP) confirm the significant tightening in the race first indicated by a set of internal Democratic party polls released last week. The PPP poll shows Democrat Joe Sestak edging Republican Pat Toomey's by a single percentage point (46% to 45%), while the smaller sample Muhlenberg tracking poll shows Sestak with a three-point advantage (44% to 41%). That result represents a ten-point net shift from Muhlenberg's last poll in early October. On the other hand, a Rasmussen poll conducted last week still showed Toomey leading by 10 points (49% to 39%).
Our standard trend estimate, which takes all of these surveys into account, now shows Toomey leading by less than four points (46.1% to 42.6%), just a whisker from toss-up status. Our more sensitive trend estimate, which puts greater weight on the four most recent polls, shows Sestak ahead by a toss-up 1.8 point margin (44.6% to 42.8%).
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