Georgia made a strategic miscalculation in trying to rapidly overrun South Ossetia,
and as a result has probably lost the region for good, regional analysts say.
While Russian-backed separatists in the breakaway Georgian region helped provoke Georgia into action,
it was the belief that its troops could secure a lightning victory that underpinned Georgia's decision
"The Georgians rolled the dice and they lost," said Michael Denison, an expert in Russian and Eurasian
affairs at Chatham House, a London-based security think tank.
"It was not an unreasonable calculation to go for a rapid win, but in the end it was a miscalculation."
Georgia, which has several restless regions within its territory, has managed to quell low-level
insurgencies on its turf in recent years -- notably in the Kodori Gorge and the Adjara region -- without
provoking Russian reaction.
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