Can Ron Paul win the Iowa caucuses?

WASHINGTON, IA. — Don’t tell Matt Winter that Ron Paul’s surge in Iowa is bad for the state’s cherished Republican caucuses.

“Whether or not you agree with Ron Paul, the fact that he’s able to
get out and connect with voters and get them to come and support him —
that’s really what the caucuses are supposed to be about,” said Winter,
an independent voter who heard Paul speak here last week and is
considering voting for him. “He has an amazing organization, no
question. … They’re out there giving out signs, signing people up,
following up with supporters, and it’s paying off.”

The unconventional candidate draws in Republicans and Democrats who
are dissatisfied with the prevailing winds of their parties, said
Winter, a 28-year-old Sibley attorney who caucused for Democrat Hillary
Clinton four years ago.

Paul, a Texas congressman, came in a close second in the the Iowa
straw poll in August, and he has remained in the top tier in polls in
Iowa ever since. In recent weeks, he has surged to the top in some polls
of likely Iowa caucusgoers.

But Paul hasn’t fared as well in national polls, and some longtime
Iowa Republicans worry that his libertarian views will turn off
mainstream Republicans and independents, making him unelectable
nationally.

Rich Lowry, editor of the National Review, wrote in a column last
week that if Iowa Republicans make Paul the caucus night victor, “no one
should take them as seriously again.”

Becky Beach of Des Moines, a fundraiser who worked for both
Presidents Bush, said she’s particularly concerned about Paul’s foreign
policy stances, including his intimations that 9/11 was partly America’s
fault and that a nuclear-armed Iran wouldn’t pose a major security
threat.

Iowa could be dismissed as an outlier if Paul finishes first here, Beach said.

“I think in the future, the more mainstream, electable candidates
would skip Iowa,” and the real nominating process would essentially
begin in New Hampshire, she said.

Beach, who is undecided on whom to vote for, said Paul has found
relative success here because the caucus process draws a small pool of
voters who tend to be energized by in-person campaigning. Paul has
attracted people who fervently agree with him, she said, but they are
out of step with most other Americans.

“I think there’s a contingent of people who are very ideological, but
who don’t look at the bigger picture, including who could really beat
Obama,” she said. “And, man, they stick together like glue.”

Paul probably would have a harder time making a splash if Iowa had a
primary, she said. A primary draws a larger turnout in through-the-day
voting than a caucus, which requires participants to meet at a specified
point and commit an hour or more of their time.

His crowds stocked with young people

Paul has attracted some of the largest Iowa crowds seen by any
candidate this year. Last week, he drew more than 200 to town-hall
meetings in Maquoketa and Washington, and he has drawn throngs on
college campuses, including more than 1,300 at both the University of
Iowa and Iowa State University.
Some skeptics have doubted that the young people who plump up his crowds will show up for him on caucus night.


Kim Pearson, a Republican state representative from Pleasant Hill who
supports Paul, said some critics try to dismiss his young followers by
saying their support is based mainly on Paul’s opposition to federal
anti-marijuana laws.
“I think that really is a slap at the younger generation,” she said,
adding that many young people are worried about having to pay off
spiraling government debt.

Pearson said Paul is holding true to traditional Republican values,
including that any wars should be approved by Congress, as the
Constitution requires. Some party leaders are trying to paint him as
radical because they’re afraid of him, said Pearson, who identifies with
the tea party wing of the GOP.

“The status quo, establishment Republican finds him to be very
threatening, because he is absolutely against the bailouts, he’s against
crony capitalism,” she said.

She believes the possibility of a Mitt Romney victory poses a greater
threat to the Iowa caucuses’ reputation, because the former
Massachusetts governor has done relatively little campaigning here. If
Iowa voters back him, she said, they will demonstrate that candidates
don’t have to compete hard here.
Veterans make up key constituency


Paul, himself a veteran, brags that no other candidate receives as many donations from members of the military.


Micah Stolba of Cedar Rapids, who held a “Veterans for Ron Paul” sign
during the candidate’s Washington town hall, said Paul’s foreign policy
is the reason.

Paul has promised to withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq, Afghanistan and
other overseas military bases. He would also abolish foreign aid as
president, but has said he will engage other nations through diplomacy
and free trade.

“What he says makes sense. People in the military, especially, they
have to think about our foreign relations with countries,” said Stolba,
32, who recently finished a three-year stint in the Army.
Some of Paul’s most vocal supporters admit they don’t agree with him on all issues.


Patrick Batey of Mount Pleasant, for one, doesn’t think the Federal
Reserve should be abolished. But he still plans to caucus for Paul, and
would even consider supporting Paul as a third-party candidate.

“He doesn’t have that glossy sheen that all the other candidates do,”
said the 27-year-old. “I guess I don’t feel like he’s trying to deceive
me.”

Danijel Pejkanovic, an 18-year-old University of Iowa student from Kalona, offered a similar analysis.


“He’s real. That’s what makes the difference for me,” he said.

If any establishment Republicans are trying to comfort themselves by
believing that Paul’s support in polls will melt away on caucus night,
they should consider this: In the Register’s final Iowa Poll before the
2008 Republican caucuses, 9 percent of people who planned to caucus said
they favored Paul. In the actual caucuses, he was backed by 10 percent
of voters.

He’s reaping the benefit now of having run four years ago and keeping
in contact with supporters. His campaign’s organizational strength is
viewed as a potential edge in getting out voters on caucus night.
Branstad, Grassley don’t see a threat

Paul struggles sometimes to gain the attention his poll numbers
suggest he deserves. When the media gave Paul scant notice after his
close second-place finish at the Iowa straw poll, late-night comedian
Jon Stewart joked that Paul is treated “like the 13th floor of a hotel.”
Ann Selzer, who runs the Iowa Poll, said Paul sometimes benefits from
lack of attention. She noted that until recent weeks he had drawn
little fire from rival candidates, several of whom have praised his
organizing abilities.

“It’s interesting that the other candidates have decided that if Ron Paul wins Iowa, it really won’t hurt them,” Selzer said.

Several top Iowa Republicans said they don’t see Paul’s candidacy as a threat to the caucuses’ reputation.

Gov. Terry Branstad, who is remaining neutral in the race, offered
kind words last week after reporters asked him about the issue.
“I think Ron Paul has demonstrated a consistent record of opposing
this excessive spending at the federal level,” Branstad said. “He also
has the most aggressive plan to reduce federal spending by over a
trillion dollars in the first year. You’ve got to give him credit for
that. So, I think Iowans are looking at and sorting out the candidates’
views on various issues, and Iowans take this responsibility very
seriously.”

U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley also discounts fears about the impact of a
Paul victory on the Iowa caucuses’ reputation. Grassley noted in an
interview that Iowans have gone their own way in previous cycles without
ruining future caucuses. He cited Republicans’ support for Mike
Huckabee in 2008 and Democrats’ support for favorite son Tom Harkin in
1992.

“There have been so many times there’s been what my dad used to call
‘crepe-hanging,’ ” Grassley said with a chuckle, referring to the
funeral tradition. “There’s always crepe-hanging about the caucuses
being ruined because this person or that person might win.”

As long as Iowa and New Hampshire Republicans and Democrats stick
together, he said, their states will lead the nation in winnowing the
presidential fields.

Paul praised for working hard here

Grassley said he’s not surprised by Paul’s progress in Iowa.

Paul has focused his time and money on Iowa, and his efforts are
producing results, Grassley said. He also has benefited by the fact that
several other candidates sound similar to each other on many issues,
splitting their support, the senator said.

Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition
and a member of the Republican National Committee, said Paul has worked
hard in Iowa, the way tradition says candidates should.

“The bottom line is, the people who can have the best organization
and turn their people out deserve to come in whatever spot they come in
on caucus night,” he said.

Scheffler, who is unaligned with a candidate, said he doubts Paul
could win the nomination nationally, no matter how well he does in Iowa.
However, he said Paul helps force other candidates to talk seriously
about limiting the federal government.

“I think him being in the mix for a while serves a useful purpose,” Scheffler said.

Staff writer Tony Leys contributed to this story.

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/25/can-paul-win-the-iowa-caucuses/